The local airwaves today were full of speculation about the Ravens' chances on wresting the division title from the Steelers. Frankly, I don't see it happening. If we get in, it's going to be as a wild card --- in fact, there's an outside chance that a 12-4 record will be rewarded with the number 6 seed, while the Broncos win the AFC West at 8-8. But there's no point in bellyaching about that --- in 2003 the 12-4 Titans visited the 10-6 Ravens in the first round of the playoffs, and we all know how that one turned out.

 Anyway, here's where we stand with 4 games to go:

 Team OVERALL RECORD CONFERENCE RECORD DIVISION RECORD 

1. Titans 11-1 7-1 4-0

2. Steelers 9-3 8-1 4-0

3. Jets 9-3 6-4 3-1

4. Broncos 7-5 4-5 2-2

Continue reading "Baltimore Ravens playoff chances"

Last night’s 24-10 victory over the Redskins reminded me of two previous games. The first is obvious; the second, less so. Yet taken together, those games underscore how far this team has come under John Harbaugh and Co., as giddy Baltimoreans count down the days ’til the Steelers come to town.

The first parallel happened in 2004, the last time the Ravens played the Redskins (coincidentally, another Sunday nighter). The offense scored all of 3 points that night—Jamal Lewis ran for 116 yards on 28 carries, but the passing game was abysmal, with Kyle Boller completing 9 of 18 passes for 81 yards and 3 picks. Yet defense and special teams carried the day (runbacks from Ed Reed and B. J. Sams accounted for two scores), and somehow we stole a victory, 17-10.

Yesterday, the offense scored a TD on its very first possession (following an Ed Reed interception), but the early success gave way to 6 straight punts (5 of them 3 and outs). A field goal provided short relief—it was followed by an interception and a fumble that led to 10 Redskins points and much uneasiness amongst those dressed in purple. Our offense took the field with 11 ½ minutes remaining and the momentum teetering perilously close to the edge.

Continue reading "Baltimore Ravens-Washington Redskins post-game thoughts, Part I"

So how did last night’s Ravens-Redskins game measure up in terms of the 5 “keys” to success in ’08:

1. Joe Flacco: The stats say this was a step back for the rookie QB: 10 of 21 for 134 yards, and 1 interception on an unnecessarily risky throw into triple coverage. (John Madden had just pointed out that with a 17 point lead, there was no need for the Ravens to “open up” their passing game --- don't you listen to Madden, Joe? Irony watch, part 2: How many times did NBC flash that note about the Ravens defense not allowing a TD in X number of quarters? One Jason Campbell TD pass later …)

Flacco started the game with a perfect strike to Derrick Mason for 26 yards. He then threw 6 straight incompletions before connecting with Todd Heap for 30 yards. The pass was dropped nicely between the linebacker and the DB, but there was a bit too much air under it, and Heap made a terrific adjustment on the ball, otherwise it would’ve been incompletion number 7. Similarly, Flacco’s game-icing TD pass owed more to a terrific individual effort by Mason than to Flacco’s underthrown pass.

Continue reading "Baltimore Ravens-Washington Ravens post-game thoughts, part II"

Some thoughts before I post my analysis of last night's loss to the Steelers (which might come tomorrow). The local airwaves today were jammed with angry Ravens fans. Fair enough, considering the role that bad officiating played in another heartbreaking 4th quarter collapse. But these angry fans seemed to be venting a disproportionate amount of their spleen on Willis McGahee --- some even went so far as to suggest he was the main reason the Ravens lost.

That, of course, is ludicrous. McGahee wasn't on the field when the proud Ravens defense let Ben Roethlisberger and his wide-outs march 92 yards for the game-winning TD. He didn't complete 11 of 28 passes for 115 yards and 2 picks, like a certain rookie QB who turned in his second straight clunker. He didn't slip and fall on a crucial 3rd and 10 like a certain All-World safety, thus allowing Nate Washington to run for the first down. He didn't tweak his hamstring like Fabian Washington, thus rendering himself useless on that same crucial drive and forcing Rex Ryan to all but abandon the blitz, lest the back-up DB get exposed (one Frank Walker, who managed to avoid an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty against the PAT holder when Jeff Reed was caught retaliating).

Continue reading "Why is everybody hating on Willis?"

A disquieting fact before I analyze Sunday’s Ravens-Steelers game: The Ravens have now played 5 games this year against upper-echelon teams (Steelers twice, Titans, Giants, Colts), and we’ve lost them all. The blow-outs on the road are one thing, but to give away yet another 4th-quarter lead at home, on the final defensive series of the game … not encouraging.

Indeed, Sunday’s game was practically a repeat of the Tennessee game: physical defenses, run-first offenses, shaky QB play on both sides until the final drive, when their guy threw the game-winning TD (aided by highly suspect officiating) and our guy threw the game-ending pick.  The big difference is that the Tennessee game happened in Week 5, and there was little evidence on Sunday that we've progressed since then. (We've certainly progressed against the bottom-feeders, and even against inconsistently good teams, like the Eagles.)  Against the elites, however---the true Super Bowl contenders---it seems clear that we’re a year away.

Continue reading "Baltimore Ravens-Pittsburgh Steelers Post-Game Thoughts"

I have absolutely no idea what to expect in tomorrow's game. I could see a repeat of the Indianapolis or NY Giants games, with the Ravens getting blown out, or I could see the Ravens losing another heartbreaker in the 4th quarter. I could see the Ravens stealing a win --- I could even (though this seems the unlikeliest scenario) see the Ravens blowing out the Cowboys. Dallas did lose to St. Louis and Arizona earlier in the year, and they've been one the NFL's weaker December-January teams over the past decade. Tony Romo can be pressured into throwing picks, and T.O. can be pressured into throwing tantrums. And the Wade Phillips era in Dallas has not exactly been about rising to the occasion.

Still, the Cowboys have so many advantages, and they have too much talent on both sides of the ball not to give the Ravens trouble. We haven't seen the Ravens play a complete, 60-minute game yet, and a complete, 60-minute game might be the only thing that can get the Ravens the upset. So yeah, I'm expecting a loss.

Continue reading "Baltimore Ravens-Dallas Cowboys pre-game thoughts"

Where to begin in the wake of one of the most amazing Ravens games I have ever seen? Perhaps with this observation: This was a 16-7 game going into the fourth quarter. The next 6 drives all produced scores --- Cowboys FG, Ravens FG, Cowboys TD, Ravens TD, Cowboys TD, Ravens TD --- before the Ravens defense finally made the game-ending stop with 52 seconds left.

In short, that fourth quarter was as entertaining as any I can recall, and the suits at the NFL Network have to be pleased with the result. As for Ravens fans, we've finally got that crucial "statement" win to validate our credentials as a playoff team. The Cowboys may not be a very good team, and they proved it last night with 10 penalties and numerous missed opportunities and breakdowns on both sides of the ball, but they might be the most talented collection of individuals we've faced all year. We saw what they could do on defense in the first half, when that fearsome pass rush collected 5 sacks, and we saw what they're capable of on offense during that wild 4th quarter.

Continue reading "Baltimore Ravens-Dallas Cowboys post-game thoughts, Part I"

Breaking down Saturday's Ravens-Cowboys game:

1. Joe Flacco: Mike Preston gave Flacco's performance an "A," writing that the rookie QB "made some really impressive throws. He showed great patience under duress and kept his patience regardless of what happened in the game. He won a big game against a quality team." I agree with all three points, but I don't know if that warrants an "A."

Forget the rather pedestrian numbers: 17 of 25 for 149 yards and 1 TD. Flacco still hasn't learned how to protect the football when under pressure --- he lost one fumble inside the 5-yard line, giving back the momentum from Ed Reed's first interception and setting up Dallas for an easy TD. He lost the ball following another hit later in the game, though it was scooped up by a teammate. (The play might have been erased by a Cowboys penalty, since I can't find it in the play-by-play, but I definitely remember seeing the ball on the ground a second time.) Flacco also overthrew a wide-open Todd Heap in the red zone; the drive ultimately stalled and we settled for a field goal.

Continue reading "Baltimore Ravens-Dallas Cowboys post-game thoughts, Part II"

As the Mark Teixeira saga drags on into a third week, I think it's become clear that Andy MacPhail didn't ever really want to land the free-agent slugger --- it's simply too much to invest in one player when the team is still 2-3 years away from contending.

MacPhail made a respectable offer to pacify the fan base --- apparently 7 years for $140-$150 million --- but he must have figured the O's would be quickly (and repeatedly) outbid by contenders. Only now the BoSox, Yankees, and Angels have all blinked, leaving MacPhail in a rather awkward position --- you've got to believe that most O's fans are getting increasingly annoyed with each day the Severna Park native and would-be franchise savior remains on the market. Economic woes or not, if you're willing to spend 140 million over 7 years, how on earth can you balk at spending 160 million over 8 years? To not even step back into the fray with an increased offer ... incredible!

Continue reading "Do the Baltimore Orioles really want Mark Teixeira?"

I don't know how much there is to say about yesterday's rout of an undermanned Jacksonville team (I think even the '04 Ravens had better receivers). After a somewhat shaky start, for all practical purposes we put this game out of reach with a picture-perfect, 21-point 2nd quarter. By halftime, I was more interested in the Jets-Dolphins scoreboard than in anything taking place at M&T Bank Stadium.

There is much that I'd like to say about this season---both what we have seen through 16 games and what we can expect to see throughout the playoffs (whether they consist of 1 game or 4). Unfortunately, I have very little time this week---hopefully I'll find some time before next Sunday's kickoff in Miami, but for now I shall confine my analysis to what we saw against the Jags.

Continue reading "Baltimore Ravens-Jacksonville Jaguars post-game thoughts"

(Home teams in ALL CAPS) 

Atlanta over ARIZONA (The Cardinals went 6-0 in the awful NFC West, and 3-7 everywhere else. Since its Week 7 bye, Arizona has not beaten a non-divisional opponent, losing 5 games by an average of 20 points. I'd take just about any team over the Cardinals, and definitely an 11-5 Falcons team that went 8-2 outside the division.)

SAN DIEGO over Indianapolis (One home team has to win on Wild Card Weekend. Give me the hot Chargers,  the only AFC team that can match the red hot Colts score for score. Besides, someone's got to clear the Colts out of the picture before they have a chance to throttle the Ravens once again.)

Baltimore over MIAMI (In truth, this isn't a homer pick. We've already beaten the Dolphins convincingly in Miami. They may have improved since then, but so have we. Give me Ray Lewis against the Wildcat, Ed Reed against Chad Pennington, and Joe Flacco against that 25th-ranked pass defense.)

Continue reading "One Baltimore fan's totally biased playoff predictions: Wild Card Weekend"

(Home teams in ALL CAPS)

Baltimore over TENNESSEE (Okay, this one's a bit more of a homer pick. But we did nearly beat the Titans in Week 5, and after treating the season closer like an exhibition, Tennessee will have gone 3 weeks between meaningful games. There should be some rust to exploit, and if we can score a TD or two early, it will be tough for that ball-control Titans offense to play catch up.)

Atlanta over CAROLINA (The last time the Falcons played the Panthers, the final score was 45-28 in favor of the Birds. I could try to justify this pick further, but the truth is I'm holding out hope for an all-rookie Super Bowl, and that means Matty Ice and company must keep moving forward.)

NY GIANTS over Philadelphia (I can justify the Eagles over the Vikings, but not over the reigning Super Bowl champs. The Meadowlands in January and that ferocious Giants pass rush add up to a long day for Andy Reid's pass-wacky offense. That plus a rested Brandon Jacobs equals win number 13 for the G-Men.)

Continue reading "One Baltimore fan's totally biased playoff predictions: Divisional Weekend"

(Home team in ALL CAPS)

 Conference Championships

Atlanta over NY GIANTS (Sorry, New York, but there are larger forces at work here. The inspired Falcons soar to one of the most impossible-to-believe Super Bowls ever.)

Baltimore over PITTSBURGH (Accuse me of being a homer all you want, but you can't tell me the Ravens didn't outplay the Steelers for most of those two heartbreakers. Third time's the charm, as we finally close the deal.)

Super Bowl

Baltimore over ATLANTA (Joe Flacco didn't win Rookie of the Year, and John Harbaugh won't win Coach of the Year, but none of that will matter when they lift that Lombardi trophy in the air. I hear you scoffing out there. Well, but answer me this: In this craziest of seasons, when practically nothing has held to form, do you really think the football gods will give us Colts-Giants?)

Continue reading "One Baltimore fan's totally biased playoff predictions: Conference Championships and Super Bowl"