Replacing Derrick Mason: The Ravens External Options

They also list the following free agents still on the market: D.J. Hackett, Amani Toomer, Justin McCareins, Reggie Williams, and Darrell Jackson. To that list I would add Koren Robinson.

 

Let's break down each option:

 

1. Marvin Harrison: Harrison is an unrestricted free agent, so he wouldn't cost any draft picks, and like all UFA's in July, the market for his services appears quite small (otherwise he'd be signed by now), so he shouldn't command an outrageous contract. Even a close approximation of his prime would give the Ravens a receiver who runs crisp routes, has excellent hands and vision, delivers the occasional big play downfield, and commands respect from teammates and opponents alike---in short, the very things Mason brought to the offense.

 

The problem is that for the past two years Harrison has been nowhere near his prime.  The numbers say it all:

 

Is this dramatic drop in production the result of the injury that robbed him of most of 2007 (and if so, has he completely recovered, or will it continue to hobble him the way it appeared to in 2008)?  Or is it the inevitable decline due to age?  Harrison is 36 and would certainly be no more than a stopgap solution, even if completely healthy.  Of course, the same could probably be said for the 35-year-old Mason ...

 

In short, Harrison would certainly seem to warrant a look, and if Ozzie and the coaching staff liked what they saw, he'd seem the ideal short-term solution.  IF he even wants to play in '09, that is.  Harrison is one of the most inscrutable stars in the NFL, and I've read speculation that, absent a ridiculous offer from a select few teams (such as his hometown Eagles), Harrison is content to fade into a quiet retirement and await his call from the Hall of Fame.  But if he could be wooed to the Ravens, and Ozzie and the coaches believed he had another productive season in the tank, I'd take him in a heartbeat over the other guys on this list.

 

2. Brandon Marshall: The Sun lists him above Anquan Boldin, but I'd take Boldin before I'd roll the dice on the troubled Marshall.  The numbers are certainly compelling:

 

Marshall is only 25 and the future, based solely on the numbers, looks very bright. Of course, the only reason a team would put a guy with his talents on the trading block is if they had serious doubts about his future.  (The fact that the Broncos traded away Jay Cutler only makes it more imperative that they hang on to Marshall, if you ask me.) It's hard to imagine Denver settling for much less than the Bears paid for Cutler --- that is, somewhere in the neighborhood of 2 first round picks --- and we haven't even mentioned the huge contract Marshall is going to demand.

 

Do the Ravens dare invest so much in a player, I don't care how talented he is, who has been arrested at least five times since college for such offenses as assaulting a police officer, domestic violence, misdemeanor battery, and driving under the influence?  How do you trade for a jerk, give that jerk a huge contract, and then expect him to stop being a jerk just because ... I don't know, because he shares a locker room with Ray Lewis?  Sorry, not worth it, not by a long shot. We ain't the Bengals, and Ozzie can do too much with those first-round picks.

 

3. Anquan Boldin: There are two ways to look at Boldin's numbers:

 

The first is that he's coming off a season in which he averaged a TD a game, and that if he plays even three-quarters of the time, he's a near lock to give you 80 catches and 1,000 yards. The other is that, were the Ravens to trade for him, he'd be leaving a pass-happy offense in which he gets to line up opposite Larry Fitzgerald, to come to a run-heavy offense in which he'd line up opposite Mark Clayton. Now this is not to say that Cam Cameron couldn't find plenty of ways to get Boldin the ball, nor is it to suggest that Mark Clayton would have put up monster numbers had he been drafted by Arizona. Boldin is a beast with the football --- he's tough as nails and can stretch the field after the catch better than most "speed" guys can stretch it before the catch.  In short, he'd fit in perfectly with the Ravens --- had he been a free agent, he might be wearing a Ravens jersey right now.

 

The trouble is that he's still under contract, and the Cardinals --- like the Broncos with Marshall --- are not going to just give him away because he wants a new one. The Ravens couldn't agree to a deal when Boldin was clamoring to leave the desert and they actually had some leverage; well, Boldin's been quiet for months now and Mason's sudden retirement means the Ravens have no leverage at all. Conclusion: they could expect to pay handsomely were they to make a trade --- again, I'd venture two first rounders, plus that huge contract Boldin will demand.

 

Of course, unlike Marshall, there are no character issues with Boldin (his sideline "meltdown" during the NFC Championship Game was way overblown). The trouble is that he's missed games due to injury in 4 of his 6 seasons---including four games in each the last two---and, at age 28, he's inching perilously close to the downward slope of his career. There's no way to know what his value would be compared to those first rounders in Ozzie's hand ... would we have a better passing game with Boldin? Unquestionably---in fact, we'd be MUCH improved.  But would that improvement guarantee them a Super Bowl appearance?  More to the point, do we still have a legitimate shot to make the Super Bowl without Boldin?

 

The answer to the first question, obviously, is no --- but that's true of any player.  As for the second question, the fact is the majority of teams who have won the Super Bowl this decade have done so despite lacking a prototypical "No. 1" receiver.  We did it, of course. The Patriots did it three times, the Bucs did it, and the Steelers did it once (in last year's Super Bowl, Santonio Holmes definitely qualified as a "No. 1"). Meanwhile, the losers of most of those Super Bowls have been the teams who have HAD the big time passing game: the Rams in 2002, the Raiders in 2003 (remember, they had Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, and a still-promising Jerry Porter), the Panthers with Steve Smith, the Eagles with Terrell Owens, the record-setting Pats of two years ago, and of course, Boldin's Cardinals.

 

So the question is, how much would I want Ozzie to give up to get a guy who might never be as valuable to us as he has been to his former team?  The truth is, I can't answer that, and if Ozzie pulled the trigger, I'd be happy (especially now that we've locked up Suggs). But if Ozzie doesn't, I can live with that too, and my optimism for the season would shine on undiminished.

 

And I think ultimately that's my position on our receiving situation. Whatever Ozzie does or does not do, I trust his judgment and I think we can contend. In the end, if we do miss the Super Bowl (heck, even if we miss the playoffs), I do not think the reason will be that we lacked a big-time wide-out. It will be because Joe Flacco and the O-Line regress (granted, a big-time wide-out would help us avoid that scenario), or because Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are a year older, or because the defense misses Rex Ryan, or because the Steelers are better or because we can't overcome injuries or simply because in the NFL every year at least half of the previous year's playoff teams fail to return.  John Harbaugh needs to get us back there to avoid the roller-coaster ride that came to define the Brian Billick-era. But I do not think he needs one more receiver to do it.