A disquieting fact before I analyze Sunday’s Ravens-Steelers game: The Ravens have now played 5 games this year against upper-echelon teams (Steelers twice, Titans, Giants, Colts), and we’ve lost them all. The blow-outs on the road are one thing, but to give away yet another 4th-quarter lead at home, on the final defensive series of the game … not encouraging.
Indeed, Sunday’s game was practically a repeat of the Tennessee game: physical defenses, run-first offenses, shaky QB play on both sides until the final drive, when their guy threw the game-winning TD (aided by highly suspect officiating) and our guy threw the game-ending pick. The big difference is that the Tennessee game happened in Week 5, and there was little evidence on Sunday that we've progressed since then. (We've certainly progressed against the bottom-feeders, and even against inconsistently good teams, like the Eagles.) Against the elites, however---the true Super Bowl contenders---it seems clear that we’re a year away.
The trouble with that assessment is that every NFL season reminds us that no team can rest on the conviction that it’s just “a year away.” By the end of 2007 Jacksonville and Cleveland were supposed to be a year away, and they crashed and burned in ’08. In fact, in their short history in Baltimore, nearly every time the Ravens have finished a season with more wins than expected, they've regressed the following year: from 12–4 and a Super Bowl trophy in 2000, to 10–6 and a divisional round thumping in 2001; from 10–6 and a division title in 2003, to 9–7 and out of the playoffs in 2004; from 13–3 in 2006 to 5–11 in 2007. (The exceptions are 1999–2000, when the Ravens vaulted from 8–8 to the Super Bowl, and 2002–2003, when a rebuilding team leapt from a surprisingly competitive 7–9 to the aforementioned 10–6.)
Since 2003, then, the pattern is clear, and it’s the primary reason Brian Billick is no longer with us: up one year, down the next. If John Harbaugh is to put a stop to the roller coaster ride and cement our place among the consistently good teams — the PIttsburghs, the Indianapolises, the New Englands—he'd better wipe all traces of Billick-era complacency from the locker room. That means continuing to demand more of his players, especially in training camp, even if it means shipping out or benching still-productive veterans who resist. (Continuity at offensive and defensive coordinator would also help, but more on that when the season ends.)
How to build on this still-beautiful season (whatever the end result) is the theme of my 5 keys, though, so let’s turn to them now:
1. Joe Flacco: Not much to say here. Season lows in completion percentage (39.3 %), passing yards (115), yards per attempt (4.1), and passer rating (22.2). Two interceptions, including the game-ending pick (granted, it was a desperation throw). Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t a whole lot better … until that final drive, when he was absolutely sensational. And therein lies the difference between a 5-year veteran and a rookie. Has Flacco hit the dreaded rookie wall? Against Cincinnati in Week 13 he played perhaps his best game yet. In the two games since, he’s gone a combined 21 of 49 for 249 yards, with three interceptions and only one (severely underthrown) TD pass. He’s also fumbled in four consecutive games.
Mike Preston speculated in a recent column that Flacco’s mechanics seem to be slipping lately—that he's throwing from a different arm position than earlier in the year. Is his arm tired? Or is it the result of rushing throws against faster, more complex defenses? He won’t get much relief in Dallas. On the other hand, Flacco’s four best games this year (at least statistically) have come on the road: at Miami (120.2 passer rating), at Cleveland (109.6 passer rating), at Houston (118.9 passer rating), and at Cincinnati (119.9) passer rating. He'll need to rediscover that touch once again if the Ravens are to pull off the upset.
2. Wide receivers: Like last week against Washington, there simply weren’t many opportunities to make big plays. Still, Flacco threw the ball 28 times against the Steelers, and the receivers had their hands on a few passes that, if caught, might have changed the outcome of the game. Mark Clayton had 3 catches, including a beautiful grab across the middle for 19 yards. Todd Heap pulled in one of Flacco’s few perfect passes, and Derrick Mason added 3 more catches, but none of them (nor Flacco, nor the running backs) made plays in the red zone. In a game decided by 4 points, that’s a pretty big “but.” There will be holes to exploit on Saturday against the Dallas secondary --- the question is, will Flacco have enough time to find them. Which brings us to ...
3. The O-line: Once again, a solid game against a worthy opponent. In total, we rushed for 112 yards on 31 carries for a 3.6 average --- not too shabby against a defense that came into the game allowing just 3.17 yards/rush. (In fact, we had such a good day running the ball, we knocked the Steelers run defense out of the number 1 spot.) Most of those yards were gained by Le'Ron McClain, whose straight-ahead style isn't going to fool many opponents --- simply put, the line created holes, and McClain hit those holes with a good head of steam. Time of possession was roughly even (the Steelers held a 3-minute advantage), and a defense that was averaging 3 1/2 sacks per game only got to Flacco twice. Indeed, Flacco had more time in the pocket to throw than he seemed to realize --- on a few misfires, he panicked and got rid of the ball before he needed to. Which brings us to ...
4. Coaching: The unbalanced line had great success neutralizing James Harrison, who in the three games prior to Sunday's had been an absolute Ravens-killer. Look for more of the same against DeMarcus Ware on Saturday. (Though that's no surprise --- the unbalanced line has been a staple of the offense all year.) The prevailing notion from fans seems to be that Cam Cameron called a conservative game, but we took our shots downfield --- Flacco and the receivers just couldn't connect. And McClain seems officially to have supplanted Willis McGahee as the starter, a coaching decision I don't think anyone would question.
The defense dominated until that final drive, when Rex Ryan seemed uncharacteristically reluctant to blitz --- the steady diet of 3- and 4-man rushes was undoubtedly a factor in Roethlisberger's game-winning drive. I suspect the conservative approach was due to the absence of Fabian Washington, who pulled a hamstring and missed much of the final quarter. (He was also on the sideline against Tennessee during Kerry Collins's game-winning drive---also greatly abetted by a sudden drop-off in pressure.) Washington's been playing terrific football of late---every week, it seems, opposing QBs go after him, and he's knocked down every pass---and Ryan can't have the same level of confidence in Frank Walker, which makes it much harder to leave the secondary exposed during a blitz.
Finally, special teams easily had its best game of the year, which had to make Harbaugh happy. (That's two solid outings in a row --- maybe the guys on each unit are finally getting used to playing with each other.)
5. Discipline: Both teams had 6 penalties for 40-odd yards, mostly of the 5- and 10-yard variety. (Willie Anderson didn't have his best day, with several false starts.) We had 8 penalties in the first meeting with Pittsburgh (including the momentum-changing unnecessary roughness call against Jarret Johnson), and 11 penalties the following week against Tennessee. Sunday's game was just as physical, just as intense, but penalties were down --- an encouraging sign.
Keywords: Baltimore Ravens Pittsburgh Steelers 5 keys
