Baltimore Ravens playoff chances

The local airwaves today were full of speculation about the Ravens' chances on wresting the division title from the Steelers. Frankly, I don't see it happening. If we get in, it's going to be as a wild card --- in fact, there's an outside chance that a 12-4 record will be rewarded with the number 6 seed, while the Broncos win the AFC West at 8-8. But there's no point in bellyaching about that --- in 2003 the 12-4 Titans visited the 10-6 Ravens in the first round of the playoffs, and we all know how that one turned out.

 Anyway, here's where we stand with 4 games to go:

 Team OVERALL RECORD CONFERENCE RECORD DIVISION RECORD 

1. Titans 11-1 7-1 4-0

2. Steelers 9-3 8-1 4-0

3. Jets 9-3 6-4 3-1

4. Broncos 7-5 4-5 2-2

5. Colts 8-4 7-2 2-2

6. Ravens 8-4 7-3 4-1

7. Patriots 7-5 5-5 3-2

8. Dolphins 7-5 5-4 2-2

Obviously, we have the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Dolphins and the Colts have the head-to-head tiebreaker against us. The Colts close with the Bengals, the Lions, at Jacksonville, and home against a Titans team that (with nothing left to play for) could very well be resting a lot of starters, so I wouldn't count on them ceding the number 5 spot to us.

Which leaves the division title. Here's the thing: If the season plays out as it seems likely to play out (at least to Ravens fans whose optimism is tempered by realism), we can't overtake Pittsburgh --- they have the edge in tiebreakers.

Consider the best case scenario: the Ravens win out. Pittsburgh would still need to lose 2 of its final 4 games for us to win the division. Here's how the Steelers' season ends: Dallas, at Baltimore, at Tennessee (which, again, might have nothing to play for), and home against Cleveland. If the Steelers go 3-1 (with their one loss coming against us), we'll both be 12-4.  Here's how tie-breakers inside the division play out:

1. Head to head

2. Division record

3. Record against common opponents 

4. Conference record

5. Strength of schedule 

In the 12-4 scenario, we'll have split the head-to-head games, we'll both have a 5-1 division record, and our record against common opponents will be 9-3 (Pittsburgh beat New England and San Diego, we beat Miami and Oakland, and we split our games, leaving us both with 9-3 records against common opponents). That leaves the conference tiebreaker, and Pittsburgh wins it: 10-2 to our 9-3.

Thus, if we run the table, Pittsburgh must play .500 football. Is that possible? Sure --- the Cowboys and Titans are both capable of beating the Steelers. But how likely are we to go 4-0? Even if we do win the rematch with Pittsburgh (hardly a given, but certainly a strong possibility --- we've won 5 straight home games against Pittsburgh), we follow up what is sure to be a brutal game with a Saturday night game (i.e., a short week) in Dallas, where we get to be the Cowboys' dates to the Texas Stadium farewell party. Good luck with that one.

So let's say we go 3-1 over the next month. A loss to Dallas wouldn't affect our conference record, but now the Steelers would have to go 1-3 to lose the division, since a 2-2 record would result in an 11-5 record for both clubs, with the conference tiebreaker again favoring Pittsburgh. But, you say, suppose Pittsburgh's second loss comes to Tennessee? That would drop their conference record to 9-3, same as ours. Alas, the final tiebreaker, strength of schedule, most likely favors the Steelers as well, since they played the mighty Patriots and Chargers (current combined record: 11-13), while we played the Dolphins and Raiders (current combined record: 10-14 ... but I have more faith in the Pats and Chargers closing strong than I do in the Dolphins and Raiders).

Do I think the Ravens can go 3-1 over their last 4 games, including a victory against Pittsburgh? Yes. Do I think the Steelers are likely to go 1-3 over their last 4 games? Let's put it this way: Do I think a 9-3 team that just stomped the Patriots in New England, that has the number 1 defense in the league and a core of veterans with Super Bowl rings, is likely to go 1-3 over its last 4 games? Hell no.

Now, there is one remaining possibility. Suppose we go 3-1 and Pittsburgh goes 2-2, with its second loss coming to the Browns. Now, we win the division tiebreaker: 5-1 vs. 4-2. Reality check: The Steelers have won 10 straight against Cleveland, and the Browns will be starting Ken Dorsey at QB.

So yeah, I'm kind of resigned to the wild card. (Of course, we've made it to the playoffs once before as a wild card.  And we all know how that one turned out ...)