I'm starting this blog late in the season, so let's dive right in.
Before the season began, I decided that 5 things needed to happen in order for 2008 to be declared a successful season. Obviously the Ravens' success to this point has changed expectations --- with a 7-4 record and five very winnable games remaining, not to make the playoffs would be a real disappointment. And yet, for all the success we've had, this is still a rebuilding year, with a rookie QB and a rookie head coach. So whatever happens over the next five weeks, and wherever this team ends up, the focus has to remain on the future (even if that future has come much earlier than anyone in Baltimore dared hope).
With that said, here are my 5 keys to a successful season, which I will revisit after each game. By the end of 2008:
1. Joe Flacco must be firmly entrenched as the team's starting quarterback.
After a 9-year horror show (do we really need to list the names anymore?), the 180-degree change in fortune that has greeted the John Harbaugh regime still seems too good to be true. There's no point dissecting what might have happened had Boller not gone on IR or Troy Smith not gotten sick. For that matter, there's no point dissecting what might have happened had we opened the season against Dallas and Pittsburgh (as was Cleveland's misfortune --- surely the league must have realized they were all but handing the Browns an 0-2 start), rather than against the Bengals and Browns; or what might have happened had the Houston game not been postponed. The point is that Joe Flacco got to begin his pro career facing two cream puff defenses at home, and this team has ridden that gift-wrapped 2-0 start to its current position atop the standings.
So where does that leave Flacco? Through the first 5 games, he had a 1-7 TD-INT ratio; he had fumbled 5 times (from 10 sacks); he had completed 90 of 144 passes (62.5%) for 844 yards (9.4 yards/completion; 5.86 yard/attempt). In the 6 games since, he has thrown 9 TDs and only 2 INTs, he has only fumbled twice (from 11 sacks); he has completed 93 of 158 passes (59%) for 1152 yards (12.4 yards/completion; 7.3 yards/attempt).
What can we conclude from these numbers? For one, ball security has improved dramatically. True, completion percentage has declined a bit, but consider that with each game Flacco is being trusted to throw riskier passes --- the deep ball has been gradually worked into the offense, and the increases in yards/completion and yards/attempt reflect that.
Beyond simple statistics, however, any Ravens fan has to feel good watching Flacco step up in the pocket, plant his feet, and throw accurately to all parts of the field. His composure and coolness under pressure have been noted by just about everyone who watches him, and I loved that story in the Sun last week about his taking the O-lineman out to dinner each week. He is growing into a leader before our eyes, and it is only year 1!
Of course he can improve his game. Against Cleveland and Houston, he had started to spread the ball around. Finally, Mark Clayton and Todd Heap were hauling in TD passes. Then, against the pressure defenses of the Giants and Eagles, he seemed to regress --- one sensed he was waiting for Derrick Mason to get open, rather than progressing through his reads. He'll get a breather this week against Cincinnati, but December brings one fast defense after another, and the passing game will not improve until Flacco develops the kind of trust and rapport with his other receivers that he has clearly developed with Mason. Which brings us to key 2 for the season:
2. The receivers must step up.
Derrick Mason continues to amaze me, and if we can squeeze another few years out of that 34-year-old body, I'll be thrilled. But none of that is news. The two big unknowns going into the season were Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams, and we haven't exactly gotten the answers we were hoping for. Williams is on IR following an injury-marred 2007, but he wasn't getting open even when he was on the field. Next year will be his fourth in the league, and time is running out for him to prove he can stay healthy enough to be the deep threat this team so desperately needs. As for Clayton — best-case scenario, he develops into another Derrick Mason. Clayton will never be the kind of game-breaker who scares opposing DBs (which sure makes that first round pick look like a reach), but if he can improve his route-running to where he’s converting three or four third downs a week and catching a TD every other week (and maybe running for another couple each year), I'll be satisfied. He's had three pretty good games in his last four, but still, those three games only add up to 9 receptions and 2 TDs. I'm not ready to give up on him, but clearly this team is still looking for its big play WR. So what else is new?
3. The O-line must dominate in the middle and be solid on at least one end.
Going into the season, we heard a lot about how Ben Grubbs, Jason Brown, and Marshal Yanda were going to solidify the center of the line for years to come. 2008 simply needed to justify that faith, and by and large it has. The running game has been among the league's best (it’s a credit to the line that they can block effectively for three distinct running styles in McGahee, Rice, and McLain), and Flacco would not be developing so quickly were he not being kept generally upright (the 21 sacks allowed is good for 17th in the league). Yanda's injury was regrettable, but Chris Chester has stepped in and played well --- considering he was in the process of being converted into a tight end, his play this year may well have saved his job.
The main questions concerned the two tackles, Gaither and Terry. Well, the last two weeks Gaither held his own against the Giants and the Eagles --- and he did it with one good arm. He may not be the second coming of JO (an impossible goal, anyway), but he has more than proven his worth, and when you're succeeding a first ballot Hall of Famer, can you really ask for more? Terry has been more hobbled by injuries, and while Willie Anderson has ably held down the fort (and kept us from having to start either of the rookies, Oniel Cousins or David Hale), he is like Mason --- I'm grateful for the contributions, but he's not part of the long-term future of this team. Hopefully Cousins and Hale can grow into starters, but I suspect we'll see another tackle or two drafted in 2009. You can never have too much depth on the line anyway.
4. Discipline must improve, and penalties must decrease.
The Ravens still rank in the top 10 in penalties (6th on offense, 2nd on defense). However, as Harbaugh recently pointed out, since the Tennessee game, players have largely eliminated the personal fouls --- certainly a step in the right direction. Trash talking has been greatly reduced, too --- to a degree rarely achieved under Billick, this team generally shows up and lets its play do the talking. Maybe they’re less entertaining from Monday through Saturday, but they are a hell of a lot more entertaining on Sundays. Is there any question which is preferable?
5. John Harbaugh must have rallied a core group of players around his message, setting himself up for a long and stable run as head coach.
A 7-4 mark (currently good for the number 6 seed in the playoffs) is all the evidence we need that this has happened. Some veterans will undoubtedly be released this off-season (so long, C-Mac), but the most important veteran, Ray Lewis, bought into Harbaugh early on, and he continues to shape the core of this team. Add to that core the young O-line, Haloti Ngata, and some key guys from Harbaugh’s first draft (certainly Flacco and Rice, possibly Zbikowski and Nakamura), and the future looks bright. Or as bright as the future can ever look in the topsy-turvy world that is the National Football League.
Keywords: Baltimore Ravens 2008 season keys
